Accuracy of the Old Farmer's Almanac

How accurate are the yearly Old Farmer’s Almanac's predictions compared to NOAA's snowfall maps?

The Old Farmer's Almanac has been publishing weather forecasts since 1792. Their predictions are based on a combination of factors, including:

• Historical weather data: They analyze long-term weather patterns to identify trends and make predictions about future weather conditions.
• Lunar cycles: They believe that the moon's position and phases can influence the weather.
• Folklore and tradition: They incorporate traditional weather wisdom and folklore into their forecasts.

The Old Farmer's Almanac's predictions are generally accurate for long-term trends, such as whether a winter will be mild or harsh. However, they are less accurate for specific weather events, such as the exact amount of snowfall in a particular location.

A study by the University of Missouri found that the Old Farmer's Almanac's predictions for winter snowfall were accurate about 50% of the time. This is similar to the accuracy of NOAA's forecasts.

Accuracy of NOAA's Snowfall Maps

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is a government agency that produces weather forecasts for the United States. Their snowfall maps are based on a combination of factors, including:

• Computer models: They use sophisticated computer models that simulate the weather to make predictions about future conditions.
• Radar and satellite data: They collect data from radar and satellites to track the movement of weather systems and precipitation.
• Observations from weather stations: They collect data from weather stations across the country to track the current weather conditions.

NOAA's snowfall maps are generally accurate for predicting the overall pattern of snowfall across the country. However, they can be less accurate for specific locations, especially in mountainous areas.

A study by the National Weather Service found that NOAA's snowfall maps were accurate about 70% of the time. This is higher than the accuracy of the Old Farmer's Almanac's predictions.

Conclusion

Both the Old Farmer's Almanac and NOAA produce snowfall predictions that are reasonably accurate. However, NOAA's forecasts are more accurate for specific locations, while the Old Farmer's Almanac's predictions are more accurate for long-term trends.

Ultimately, the best way to get an accurate forecast for your location is to consult both sources and use your own judgment.